Proof on the Ground: What Worked in 2025

Looking back, there were real reasons to celebrate. The Aquatic Warbler translocation in Lithuania went very well once again—an important achievement not only because survival of the translocated chicks was high, but also because a new approach was tested successfully. Chicks were rescued from sites where they would likely have been lost due to early mowing or intensive grazing, and given a far better chance to fledge and contribute to the population.

Two major initiatives, “LIFE4AquaticWarbler” and “LIFEAWOM“, also launched with strong energy and a promising start. And in November, the conference in Vilnius brought the community together at exactly the right moment, strengthening coordination and sharpening the focus for what comes next. Most encouraging of all, while much of the range slid further into decline, the populations in Belarus and Lithuania resisted the overall negative trend—stable in Belarus and even increasing in Lithuania—thanks to excellent habitat management under difficult conditions in Zvaniec and in the Nemunas Delta and Alka Polder.

A Year of Fire and Drought

But the same year delivered the harshest reminder of why this work cannot slow down. Extreme drought, paired with large uncontrolled fires in eastern Poland and Ukraine, pushed the global population down to an estimated 4,000–5,000 singing males—likely a historic low and a sign that the species may be approaching a dangerous bottleneck. After two decades of relative stability around 10,000–12,000 singing males, the last eight to ten years have brought another strong decline, and 2025 underlined that even big conservation efforts can be overwhelmed when climate extremes and habitat loss accelerate.

Strongholds and Red Flags Across the Range

The map of 2025 had its bright and dark zones. Lithuania and southern Belarus, especially Zvaniec, remained the most promising areas. Elsewhere, the warning lights flashed: Biebrza in Poland suffered severely from drought and fires; Dikoe in Belarus faced rapid vegetation succession; and many sites in Ukraine continued to struggle under insufficient management and fast overgrowth by bushes and reeds. Across the flyway, the same old threats—poor or absent management, drying wetlands, succession—are now moving faster. And along the migration route, the continuing loss of coastal wetlands in Morocco through expanding hydro-agriculture, freshwater extraction, and development keeps narrowing the species’ options.

2026: A Window of Time—and a Test of Action

So what does 2026 offer? First, a chance—because the cold, snowy winter should improve water conditions and habitat quality across much of the breeding range, buying precious time in this run against extinction. And second, momentum—because key actions are already lined up. Large-scale habitat management in the upper Ukrainian Pripyat could begin to shift outcomes. In Belarusian Dikoe, measures against bush encroachment are planned, alongside continued innovation to tackle reed overgrowth. In Lithuania, the Baltic Environmental Forum will keep strengthening habitat in Alka Polder and the Nemunas Delta, while continuing to build the Žuvintas population through translocation. Meanwhile in Poland, translocation efforts should continue to support the Pomeranian population—later to be reinforced by the planned German translocation in 2027, for which habitat work is already underway.

No Miracles, But a Turn for the Better

No one should promise miracles by December 2026. A truly “good year” in the sense of full recovery is not realistic on such a short horizon. But a much better year than 2025 is possible—and that matters. If water returns, if management expands, if key sites are kept open and wet, then 2026 can become a year of regained stability rather than further collapse.